A very good read Suraj. Liked the fact that you have covered the subject comprehensively. It’s worth noting that even those who understand probabilities and payoffs often overlook careful portfolio construction at the start. I guess our brain gets excited by the discovery and research and pay offs etc. which probably makes us ignore the " application" part
Thank you for bringing in the probability angle! Yes, absolutely — it’s all a game of probabilities and increasing your chances of a huge payoff when we’re right. Couldn’t agree more on how excitement often makes us overlook the application part.
Brilliant post. Your thoughts regarding second order thinking resonate with Daniel kahneman's Thinking fast and Slow where he talks about the System 1 thinking with cognitive biases which is fast instinctual and largely unconscious requiring less effort. System is slow cognitive and calculating.
Really good post in general and ice make in particular
Wonderful post Suraj! I've (sometimes!) successfully tried this principle, though not as well as you have articulated..
My friend had intuitively told me that "If you don't have 2-3L per pick, even a 3-5x is meaningless "
But, fantastic piece, and do keep writing buddy.. You do this SO well!
Thank you so much! Yes — position sizing can make all the difference. Glad you enjoyed the piece, and I really appreciate the kind words. Means a lot!
A very good read Suraj. Liked the fact that you have covered the subject comprehensively. It’s worth noting that even those who understand probabilities and payoffs often overlook careful portfolio construction at the start. I guess our brain gets excited by the discovery and research and pay offs etc. which probably makes us ignore the " application" part
Thank you for bringing in the probability angle! Yes, absolutely — it’s all a game of probabilities and increasing your chances of a huge payoff when we’re right. Couldn’t agree more on how excitement often makes us overlook the application part.
Thank you so much for this post. Really brilliant. I found myself thinking on same grounds for last couple of months. You put it in words precisely.
Glad it resonated! Always nice to know others are thinking along the same lines.
Brilliant post. Your thoughts regarding second order thinking resonate with Daniel kahneman's Thinking fast and Slow where he talks about the System 1 thinking with cognitive biases which is fast instinctual and largely unconscious requiring less effort. System is slow cognitive and calculating.
Really good post in general and ice make in particular
Thanks so much!
Absolutely! That book really helped shape how I think about biases and decision-making too.